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[{"$nulls":3},"註:本演練所使用之案例是參考真實案例以儘量符合臨床實務，然為方便進行討論，部分資訊已有修正或給予適當假設。此外，案例演練使用參數會以發表文獻或公開資訊為主，並不使用任何機密資料。"]
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[{"$nulls":4},"為要填寫的細格"]
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[null,"封面","………………………………","click here"]
[null,"目錄","………………………………","click here"]
[null,"新醫療科技臨床使用定位","………………………………","click here"]
[null,"試算表","………………………………","click here"]
[null,"財務影響分析結果","………………………………","click here"]
[null,"癌症粗發生率成長率估算","………………………………","click here"]
[null,"被取代的現有醫療科技成本","………………………………","click here"]
["參考文獻","參考文獻","………………………………","click here"]

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[null,"新醫療科技臨床使用定位"]
[null,"藥品資訊"]
[null,null,"建議收載藥品","取代藥品1","取代藥品2","取代藥品3","取代藥品4"]
[null,"商品名","A Film-coated Tables","化學治療組合1","化學治療組合2","化學治療組合3","化學治療組合4"]
[null,"成分名/含量","A' 250 mg","B' 150 mg+C' 100 mg","V' 250 mg+C' 100 mg","F' 50 mg+C' 100 mg","E' 500 mg+C' 100 mg"]
[null,"ATC分類七碼","-","-","-","-","-"]
[null,"主管機關適應症","具有X基因突變之局部侵犯性或轉移性之特殊型態癌症病患之第一線治療","同A藥","同A藥","同A藥","同A藥"]
[null,"藥品許可證字號","衛署藥輸字第888888號","-","-","-","-"]
[null,"建議/現行健保給付規定","同適應症","無","無","無","無"]
[null,"劑量療程","250 mg口服，一天一次。","依據體表面積計算，每月施打3次為ㄧ次療程。","依據體表面積計算，每月施打3次為ㄧ次療程。","依據體表面積計算，每月施打3次為ㄧ次療程。","依據體表面積計算，每月施打3次為ㄧ次療程。"]
[null,"建議/現行健保支付價","建議1,250元","B' 150 mg: 1,500元/C' 100 mg:500元","V' 250 mg: 3,000元/C' 100 mg:500元","F' 50 mg: 4,500元/C' 100 mg:500元","E' 500 mg: 14,500元/C' 100 mg:500元"]
[null,"每療程費用","四週(28天):35,000元","每月約12,000元","每月約36,000元","每月約7,000元","每月約14,000元"]
[]
[null,"□取代關係：   新醫療科技名稱   預期將取代   現有醫療科技名稱（不限一種）  之市場"]
[]
[null,"□新增關係：   新醫療科技名稱   預期將用於   現有醫療科技名稱（不限一種）  治療無效或無治療選項的病人"]
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{"sheet":"試算表","index":3,"n_rows":46,"n_cols":10,"rows_kept":46,"merged":[[2,1,2,9],[4,1,11,1],[14,1,14,9],[25,1,26,1],[41,1,41,9]],"flags":["formulas_cached_only"]}
[null,"試算表",null,4,5,6,7,8]
[null,"指引項目說明","本案例項目說明","第一年(2014)","第二年(2015)","第三年(2016)","第四年(2017)","第五年(2018)","參數假設依據說明","參數"]
[null,"可能的市場規模-(A)病人數推估法"]
[null,"(1) 總人口數","a.台灣人口",{"$nulls":5},"依據國家發展委員會「中華民國2012年至2060年人口推計」報告之2012年人口推計-中推計數取得2014~2018年人口數。"]
[null,"(2) 符合適應症之病人數/     (3) 確認診斷之病人數/          (4) 接受治療的病人數","b.某癌症粗發生率(每十萬人)",{"$nulls":5},"利用國健署癌症登記線上互動查詢系統提供之2006年~2010年癌症粗發生率計算癌症發生成長率(詳見sheet_癌症粗發生率成長率估算)，並推估2014~2018年粗發生率。"]
[null,null,"b1.某癌症發生人數",{"$nulls":5},"為a*b"]
[null,null,"c.特殊型態別癌症人數",{"$nulls":5},"依據民國100年癌症登記年報顯示某癌症病人中有91%為特殊型態別。"]
[null,null,"d.某癌症局部侵犯性或轉移性個案數",{"$nulls":5},"依據民國100年癌症登記年報顯示某癌症病人為第IIIB期和第IV期共佔70.00%。"]
[null,null,"e.局部侵犯性或轉移性癌症接受化療人數",{"$nulls":5},"依據癌症登記年報顯示IIIB與IV期病患中，共有80%患者會接受化療。假設此比例維持不變。"]
[null,null,"f.接受X基因突變檢測比率",{"$nulls":5},"假設接受X基因突變檢測比率分別為80%、85%、90%、95%和99%。"]
[null,null,"f1.局部侵犯性或轉移性癌症接受化療且X基因突變者接受X基因突變檢測人數",{"$nulls":5},"為e*f"]
[null,null,"g.局部侵犯性或轉移性癌症接受化療者為X基因突變者人數",{"$nulls":5},"依據台灣流行病學研究之統合分析結果顯示X基因突變盛行率為56.4%(詳見參考文獻1)。"]
[]
[null,"I、可能的市場規模(預估目標族群)"]
[null,"原情境費用"]
[null,"現有醫療科技組合總成本"]
[null,"(4)現有醫療科技組合平均成本(每人每年費用)","h.目前健保已給付第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合平均成本 (價)",{"$nulls":5},"依據目前健保已給付第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合之市佔率和每年平均費用(詳見sheet_被取代的現有醫療科技成本)。"]
[null,"(5)原情境下醫療科技總成本","i.目前健保已給付第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合藥費成本"]
[]
[null,"II、原情境下藥費總成本(元)"]
[null,"新情境費用"]
[null,"(6)未來五年新醫療科技市佔率","j.A藥未來五年的市佔率",{"$nulls":5},"假設第一年至第五年分別為35%、50%、60%、70%和80%。"]
[null,"(7)新醫療科技預估使用量","j1.A藥未來五年使用人數",{"$nulls":5},"為I、可能的市場規模*j.A藥未來5年的市佔率。"]
[null,"(8)新醫療科技成本"]
[null,"建議給付單位價格","k1.A藥建議給付單位價格",{"$nulls":5},"建議價每顆1,250元。"]
[null,"每人每年用量\n","k2.A藥使用期間",{"$nulls":5},"依據臨床試驗結果顯示A藥無病存活期(prodgreesion-free survival)平均數為9.5個月(詳見參考文獻2)。"]
[null,null,"k3.A藥使用劑量",{"$nulls":5},"每日1次，每月以28天計算。"]
[null,"每人每年費用\n","k4.每病人藥費成本",{"$nulls":5},"為k1*k2*k3。"]
[null,"(9)新醫療科技總成本","l.A藥藥費總成本",{"$nulls":5},"為(7)新醫療科技預估使用量*(8)新醫療科技成本。"]
[]
[null,"III、A藥藥費成本(元)"]
[]
[null,"(10) 現有醫療科技組合市佔率","m.第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合市佔率",{"$nulls":5},"與A藥(j)加總為100%。"]
[null,"(11) 現有醫療科技組合預估使用量","m1.第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合使用人數",{"$nulls":5},"為I、可能的市場規模*m.第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合市佔率。"]
[null,"(12)現有醫療科技組合總成本","o.第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥物組合總成本",{"$nulls":5},"為m1.第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合使用人數*h.目前健保已給付第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合平均成本 (價)。"]
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[null,"IV、第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合藥費成本(元)"]
[null,"V、新情境下藥費總成本(元)",{"$nulls":6},"為III、A藥藥費成本+IV第一線特殊型態癌症化療藥品組合藥費成本。"]
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[null,"財務影響(元)",{"$nulls":6},"新情境下藥費總成本-原情境下藥費總成本"]
[]
[null,"執行敏感度分析：過去不願接受化學治療者，現在願意接受口服標靶藥物。"]
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[null,null,"Check目標族群加總正確",0,0,0,0,0]

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[null,"項目","第一年(2014)","第二年(2015)","第三年(2016)","第四年(2017)","第五年(2018)"]
[null,"(1)   新情境醫療科技總成本",0,0,0,0,0]
[null,"(2)   原情境醫療科技總成本",0,0,0,0,0]
[null,"(3)   財務影響",0,0,0,0,0]
[null,"單位：元"]
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[null,"粗發生率",39.52,42.09,42.68,47.08,45.83]
[null,"線性迴歸"]
[null,"複合成長率"]
[null,"算數平均成長率"]
[null,"算數成長率"]
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[null,"項目","健保給付單價","每人每年用量","每人每年費用","市佔率","參數假設依據說明"]
[null,"化學治療組合1",{"v":2000,"d":"2,000"},60,{"v":120000,"d":"120,000"},{"v":0.11,"d":"11.0%"},"分析200X~201X健保資料庫"]
[null,"化學治療組合2",{"v":3500,"d":"3,500"},96,{"v":336000,"d":"336,000"},{"v":0.31,"d":"31.0%"}]
[null,"化學治療組合3",{"v":5000,"d":"5,000"},12,{"v":60000,"d":"60,000"},{"v":0.13,"d":"13.0%"}]
[null,"化學治療組合4",{"v":15000,"d":"15,000"},8,{"v":120000,"d":"120,000"},{"v":0.45,"d":"45.0%"}]
[null,"加權平均年費用"]
[]
[null,"*假設化學治療組合臨床實務之市佔率已穩定不變。"]
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[null,"參考文獻"]
[null,"1.MM Chen, QQ Lee, YY Lin, et al., A systematic review and meta-analysis of X gene mutation in Taiwan. journal. 2013 Aug; 24(3):123-456"]
[null,"2.JD Wang, PG Chou, SS Sun, et al., Efficacy and safety of A drug compared to Chemotherapy: the ABC study. Journal. 2012 Feb; 33(8):222-555"]
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